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Credit risk stress testing of the Czech banking sector
Vachušková, Karolína ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Švéda, Josef (referee)
This thesis aims to describe stress testing in the Czech banking sector focusing on the most significant banking risk, which is credit risk. The thesis examines the difference between regulatory and internal stress testing, compares their assumptions, outcome quality and usability. It deals with the regulation of stress tests, which banks must fulfil. Further, it uses the current Covid-19 crisis as a test of whether the adverse scenarios used are sufficiently severe to cover the risks for and impacts on the actual negative development of the economy. This analysis assesses the Czech banking sector's readiness and resilience and includes the reactions of banks and the Czech authorities to increasing risks.
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Influence of the American economic crisis of 2007 on Czech economy
Gajdošová, Veronika ; Tichá, Milena (advisor) ; Samek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on financial crisis from 2007 and its impact on Czech economy. Special attention is given to four macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic and their transformation during this crisis and after it. First part focuses on definition and description of characteristics and stages of business cycles, first in general and then specifically when talking about 2007's economic crisis. Subsequent practical part analyses specific economic repercussions stemming from the crisis, pointedly in macroeconomic indicators, state budget and mortgage market. In the final part of this thesis, the knowledge and findings about these areas, which accurately depict overall status of Czech economy during the crisis and after it are evaluated and commented on. This thesis may be used by humanities' teachers to illustrate the functioning of business cycles and their impacts on economies. KEYWORDS: Czech economy, business cycle, trade cycle, economic crisis, mortgage crisis, globalization
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Satellite Model Accuracy in Bank Stress Testing
Hamáček, Filip ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Pečená, Magda (referee)
Satellite Model Accuracy in Bank Stress Testing Abstract Filip Hamáček January 4, 2019 This thesis is dealing with credit risk satellite models in Czech Republic. Satellite model is a tool to predict financial variable from macroeconomic vari- ables and is useful for stress testing the resilience of the banking sector. The aim of this thesis is to test accuracy of prediction models for Probability of De- fault in three different segments of loans - Corporate, Housing and Consumer. Model currently used in Czech National Bank is fairly unchanged since 2012 and its predictions can be improved. This thesis tests accuracy of the original model from CNB by developing new models using modern techniques, mainly by model combination methods: Bayesian Model Averaging (currently used in European Central Bank) and Frequentist Model Averaging. Last approach used are Neural Networks. 1
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Economic position of the Czech republic in the European union
Podzimek, Pavel ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (advisor) ; Sankot, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with economic position of the Czech Republic in the European union. Initially the history of the Czech economy since the origins of Czechoslovakia is described. In the next chapter are compared advantages and disadvantages of being a member of EU. In the third chapter is drawn a comparison of chosen macroeconomic indicators between the Czech Republic and several EU member states. According to the level of these indicators, the position of the Czech Republic in EU is evaluated and the Czech economic advancement for the near future is outlined.
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Comparison of the Macroeconomic Development of the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands
Stankovičová, Diana ; Krameš, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Soukupová, Jana (referee)
Aim of this bachelor's thesis is to compare economic development of the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands. The goal is to choose and evaluate the macroeconomic development of the mentioned countries in the time period from the year 2008 until the year 2016. Indicators as export, import, net export, exchange rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate and gross domestic product were used. In the theoretical part, the chosen indicators of economic performance are defined and explained. The practical part is focused on the analysis of these indicators of the chosen countries and on the following comparison (development between years, development between countries). Outcome from the identified analyses are evaluations and recommendations for the chosen countries, how it is possible to improve the situation in the countries to achieve higher economic productivity and stability.
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Financial Crises and its Consequences in the Czech Republic
Mužík, Martin ; Tichá, Milena (advisor) ; Jirásková, Věra (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the World Financial Crisis issue and its consequences on the Czech Republic economy. The thesis consists of three basic parts. In the first, theoretical part, there is a financial crisis described generally, with the focus on the analysis of economic cycle. In the second part, it is focused on the beginning and development of the USA crisis. The third part is concerned with the consequences of the crisis on the Czech Republic economy in the area of GDP development, foreign trade nad employment and their comparison with the development of the same macroeconomic indexes of the economy in Germany.
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Comparison of The Development of Greek and Czech Economy
Zapletal, Jan ; Svoboda, Roman (advisor) ; Michal, Michal (referee)
Summary
Thesis Comparison of Greek and Czech economies has been devied into two main parts, the theoretical and the practical one.
The theoretical part was about gaining an important theoretical knowledge, which lead to a broader understanding of the issue. There were mentioned descriptive methods, describing various macroeconomic indicators, that were used to compare the two national economies. Alos, there were taking into consideration several main economical aspects, such as: gross domestic product, general unemployment rate, inflation rate, export, import and interest rates, and the national debt coefficient. The last chapters have been devoted to describe the Maastricht criteria and the process of involving euro in Czech Republic.
The practical part included individual macroeconomic indicators, examined in terms of development of both economies, and subsequently with the help of statistical methods, made the comparison, that highlighted important analogies and differences. For deeper perception of the issue, there were used data of other European Union countries and countries that had eccepted euro in this thesis. And the last but not the least, the macroeconomic data evaluation has been set for the period from 2005 to 2015.
Findings were based on the last part of the thesis, which obtained comparison of the development of both economies in the past, and also included the assumption for future development. Conclusion described the impact on Czech Republic economy, influenced by embracement of euro.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.2). No. 2, Vol. 11, November 2013, Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin focuses on four articles which analyse the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The first article examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in six industrialised countries during 1980–2008. Employing a novel empirical framework, the article documents changes in monetary-fiscal interactions over time. Next, these changes are linked to the monetary policy regime set-up. The second article assesses the extent to which fiscal discretion in the Czech Republic contributed to smoothing the real economy over the business cycle in the past decade. Using several alternative approaches, the results suggest that fiscal discretionary measures have been procyclical, that is, have amplified business cycle fluctuations. The third article analyses in an empirical framework how unexpected changes to government spending and revenues affect the Czech economy. The article detects certain regularities and at the same time shows the limits of the existing identification methods when applied to short Czech fiscal data. The fourth article takes a complementary approach by building a dynamic stochastic general equilib rium (DSGE) model to quantify the effects of fiscal measures on the expenditure and revenue sides of the Czech economy. The model, which is still rather in the development stage, demonstrates the potential for calculating fiscal multipliers and simulating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal measures for individual categories of the government budget.
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The Results of the Transition Process in Visegrad Four
Hruška, Jan ; Kalínská, Emílie (advisor) ; Bolotov, Ilya (referee)
The thesis deals with the process of economic transition and its results in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic a the Slovak Republic, i.e. countries of Visegrad four. The paper describes the functioning of centrally planned economy and the general process of transition to a market economy. It also mentions different theoretical approaches. Furthermore it analyses the development of transition reforms in particular countries and compares the results of individual transition strategies.
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